Après la dictature

La guerre en Irak commençait à peine, que déjà les responsables de l'invasion songeaient aux lendemains de la victoire sur Saddam, une victoire considérée comme inévitable. Les hommes politiques et les spécialistes se livrent à des comparaisons avec des cas récents comme l'Afghanistan, le Sierra Leone et le Timor oriental, mais aussi avec des situations plus éloignées dans le temps, mais exemplaires.

On s'attend en Irak à la chute d'une dictature reposant fortement sur une doctrine. Peut-on tirer un enseignement des derniers exemples de ce type comme l'effondrement du communisme en Europe de l'Est en 1989 ou la fin du 3° Reich allemand en 1945 et le processus de " dénazification " qui l'a suivi ?

Ces comparaisons sont manifestement risquées, chaque cas présentant ses particularités. En ce qui concerne la chute du communisme, l'histoire de la Pologne et de la Roumanie par exemple sont très différentes. En outre, la validité des comparaisons diminue lorsque les différences culturelles s'accroissent. Il y a cependant un certain nombre d'éléments communs à l'écroulement de la plupart des dictatures de nature doctrinaire.

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