La división económica de la casa africana

DAKAR – La recesión económica mundial y los temblores en los mercados financieros han puesto presión sobre los presupuestos en toda África. Con la excepción de Ghana y unos cuantos otros estados, en 2009 la mayoría de los balances fiscales africanos sufrieron un deterioro. Sin embargo, gracias al manejo prudente de las finanzas públicas durante los periodos de sólido crecimiento anteriores, un número importante de países africanos han soportado la crisis actual en mejores condiciones fiscales que durante crisis anteriores.

En 2009, el crecimiento general del PGB en África fue en promedio 1,6%, lo que representa una baja con respecto al 5,7% del periodo 2002-2008, pero crecimiento al fin y al cabo. Más aún, varios países africanos siguieron implementando reformas de largo plazo para mejorar sus clima de negocios e inversiones, a pesar de los inmensos retos planteados por la crisis. Ahora que el comercio internacional y la producción industrial global están mejorando, las economías del sub-Sáhara parecen bien posicionadas para emprender un crecimiento más sólido, a medida que la demanda y los precios del petróleo y otros minerales se recupera y la actividad económica global retoma su ritmo.

Por supuesto, existen numerosos riesgos -malas condiciones climáticas, conflictos militares y agitación política- que todavía pueden socavar los beneficios, logrados con tanto esfuerzo, de este historial social y económico. Pero el desequilibrio estructural más difícil de abordar en África es la naturaleza dicotómica de sus economías y finanzas. Francamente, están emergiendo dos Áfricas: una economía moderna y otra basada en el dinero en efectivo.

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