难以维系的非洲经济

达喀尔——世界经济衰退和金融市场震荡已经导致非洲国家预算紧张。 除加纳和少数几个其他国家之外,2009年绝大多数非洲国家的财政收支状况均呈现恶化态势。 但多亏在之前的强劲增长期对公共财政的审慎管理,相当数量的非洲国家在这次危机中的财政状况强过以往的历次危机。

2009年,非洲各国合计平均GDP增长为1.6%,较之2002-2008年间的5.7%有所下降,但仍然呈现增长态势。 此外,尽管面临金融危机的严峻挑战,但一些非洲国家仍继续推进改善商业和投资环境的长期改革措施。 当前国际贸易和全球工业生产正逐渐好转,随着石油和其他矿产品需求及价格反弹和一般经济活动恢复,撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家似乎增长会更加强劲。

当然,恶劣天气的冲击、军事冲突和政治动荡等多种下行风险仍然可以破坏这一社会经济记录的来之不易的收益。 但让非洲最棘手的结构性失衡却是其经济和金融结构的二元化属性。 坦率地说,有两个非洲正在崛起: 一个是现代经济的非洲,而另一个则是以现金为基础的经济。

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