Economics

القوة الصناعية لافريقيا

Sep 8, 2015 Li Yong

فيينا- في اقل من ثمانية اشهر وصل حوالي ربع مليون مهاجر والعديد منهم من افريقيا الى اوروبا عن طريق البحر- اكثر من كامل العدد لسنة 2014- ولا توجد دلائل على ان هذا المد سوف يتوقف فالبعض يهرب من الحرب والاضطهاد واخرون ومعظمهم من الشباب يسعون للحصول على فرص اقتصادية مما يعني ان التعامل مع ازمة الهجرة يتطلب جهودا ليس فقط لمعالجة انعدام الاستقرار في مناطق المصدر ولكن ايضا للتخفيف من حدة الفقر وخلق الوظائف علما ان مفتاح تحقيق هذا الهدف الاخير هو الصناعة.

خلال العقد الماضي سجلت افريقيا متوسط معدل نمو سنوي يصل الى 5% وفي بعض البلدان وصلت النسبة الى اكثر من 7% ولكن هذا النمو والمبني في غالبيته على صادرات السلع والصناعات الاستخراجية اظهر قدرة محدودة على الدفع بالتحول الاجتماعي والاقتصادي لاسباب ليس اقلها ان نسبة صغيرة من السكان جنت معظم تلك الفوائد .

تمتلك افريقيا الادوات التي تحتاجها لتغيير ذلك بدءا بعمالة ضخمة غير مستغلة وفي واقع الامر حوالي 60% من العاطلين عن العمل في افريقيا هم من الشباب . تقدر اعداد الشباب الذين سينضمون الى اسواق العمل الافريقية هذا العام بحوالي 23 مليون شاب كما من المتوقع ان يزيد اجمالي العمالة في القارة بحوالي 910 مليون من 2010 الى 2050 .

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

Robbie Jena Sep 22, 2015

We have been trying to improve Africa for the last 14 years. It did not go anywhere because we did not get sponsors from USA and India. We are still working on it. It is the Business Processes they use to make any deference or lack off. Thank you.
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Berman Hudson Sep 13, 2015

Does anyone really think that the Africa of 2050 or 2100 will be any improvement over the Africa of today? Huge population growth on an already ill-fed, chaotic continent can only breed more hunger, more violence and more out-migration. The 20th century will be a tragedy for many and perhaps a treat for the true connoisseurs of human folly among us. God help the Africans -- and the Europeans.
- Robbie Jena Sep 22, 2015
  
  We could use the same Technology base as in China...but could not get any politicians for support.
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- Paul Friesen Sep 14, 2015
  
  You could have said the same stuff about China 20 years ago, and look at it now. The direction of history is very clear. For the past century or so, we have had a group of poor, unindustrialized countries, a group of rich, industrialized, countries, and a group of countries that is in the process of industrializing - moving from the poor group to the rich group. African countries like Ethiopia have just begun entering this transformation process. This will begin moving very fast shortly.
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- Berman Hudson Sep 13, 2015
  
  In the post above --" 20th century" should read "21st century."
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Paul Friesen Sep 11, 2015

I guess my point is that it is not necessarily a good idea to try to improve "efficiency" - however defined, just by importing methods that work economically in rich countries. Such methods may not make economic sense in a cheap labour environment. We need to think carefully before trying to "improve" the methods that poor country decision makers have developed themselves.
- Moctar Aboubacar Sep 11, 2015
  
  A very interesting point, and certainly a useful one. Not necessarily what I was addressing ("how rich countries did it"), but the point of cheap labor markets is well taken.
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Moctar Aboubacar Sep 11, 2015

I would add that there needs to be productive industrialization. The sole point of industrialization is not to create jobs, but also to give a country the expertise and efficiency in production of higher value-added goods. In African countries, where the informal economy is often very big, you can have many small and highly inefficient producers. Getting more people into the efficient sectors of the economy, or working to transform inefficient and informal sectors of the economy should also be a priority.
- Moctar Aboubacar Sep 11, 2015
  
  Paul, I agree with your point about the individual decision-making of people in poorer countries. However regarding productivity, perhaps we see things a little differently. The fact that production methods in certain countries are more labor-intensive than in rich countries is precisely what makes them inefficient. Labor intensive methods may make sense if labor is cheap, but that doesn't make production more efficient. Productivity margins in these countries are higher precisely because they are less productive to begin with. The poor countries are perhaps efficiently allocating their labor according to the realities of labor markets, skills and opportunities as you say, but that's not the kind of efficiency I was talking about.
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- Paul Friesen Sep 11, 2015
  
  Perhaps. But we need to avoid a common mistake. The fact that production methods used in poor countries are often more labour-intensive than those used in rich countries does not necessarily mean that the poor countries are inefficient. Labour-intensive methods make sense if labour is cheap and other production inputs like machinery cost the same as in rich countries.
  I believe strongly that people in poor countries are very little different from those in rich countries. They are just as good decision makers. But they are making those decisions in an economic environment that is different because most manufacturing activity has clustered together in rich countries, leaving them out.
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Paul Friesen Sep 8, 2015

Wow.

This is what I have been saying for years, mostly to deaf ears. For decades now, international development thinking has been dominated by buzz phrases like "appropriate technology" and "small is beautiful" and by all sorts of fuzzy thinking like that. It's good to see that more sensible ideas seem to be taking hold somewhere.

People used to have more sensible ideas back in the 1950's. The problem was that they mostly focused on import substitution industrialization, which doesn't generally work well because of the small size of the domestic market in poor countries. Still, this approach played a large role in the industrialization of places like Hong Kong. They used it as a step to export-focused industrialization, which is what is really needed.
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