African construction Issuof Sanogo/Getty Images

寄希望于非洲的基础设施建设

约翰内斯堡——随着美联储开始“大逆转”近十年前开始的刺激计划,新兴经济体越来越担心美元走强会对其以美元计价债务的偿付能力造成负面影响。对非洲而言这种担忧尤其严重,自塞舌尔2006年发行首支欧元债以来,尚未偿还的欧元债总值已经增长到近350亿美元

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但如果说美联储持续退出刺激计划已经挑动了非洲国家的神经,同时也令人们意识到有比借美元债更加明智的发展融资方法。在现有方案中,有一种特定的资产类别脱颖而出:那就是基础设施建设。

非洲预计到2050年人口将达26亿左右,因此急需资金来修建和维护道路、港口、电网等基础设施。据世界银行统计,非洲必须每年花费惊人的930亿美元用于升级其现有基础设施;而这些资金中的绝大多数——约占87%——将用于改善能源、饮用水、卫生和交通运输等基础服务。

但如果说过去有任何经验可以借鉴,那就是筹措所需资金绝不是一项轻而易举的任务。在2004到2013年间,非洲国家仅实际完成了158项基础设施或工业项目的融资交易,总值590亿美元——仅占所需资金总额的5%。鉴于这样的过往经历,非洲能否筹措到世界银行预测要求的哪怕一小部分资金都存在很大变数。

最明显的资金来源是机构和国外投资。但到目前为止,许多因素,包括盈利预测不佳和政治不稳定,都对非洲大陆基础设施项目的融资能力构成了严重的限制。对非洲基础设施项目投资被视为高风险的选项。

幸运的是,就像一些投资者——如非洲开发银行南部非洲开发银行贸易发展银行——已经证明的那样,经过艰苦的努力,这种消极的看法可以被克服。来自私营部门的企业同样可以在非洲大陆基础设施项目融资当中有利可图。例如,由黑石公司设立的黑犀牛基金是全世界规模最大的跨国私募股权公司之一,该基金专门从事燃料储存、管道和输送网络等能源项目的开发和采购。

但这些皆属例外,而非规则。充分筹措资金解决非洲的基础设施短缺问题需要迅速吸引更多的投资者。

要想取得成功,非洲必须制定一种更为协调一致的方法来讨好资本,并同时竭尽全力控制投资者的风险敞口。公共和私营部门合作提供了一种可能性。例如,在能源领域,独立的电力生产企业正在与政府合作为6.2亿尚未接入电网的非洲民众提供电能。这些电力生产企业由私人出资并接受政府监管,通过电力采购协议来完成运营,公共事业部门和监管机构在电力采购协议中同意以事先约定的价格采购电力供应。撒哈拉以南非洲地区约有130家这样的电力生产企业,总值超过80亿美元。仅南非一地就在开展47个相关项目,总共可以达到7000兆瓦的新增电力产能

交通运输等其他部门也正在出现类似的公私合作关系。其中最有前景的当属最早出现在南非的由私人投资兴建的收费公路。这些在非洲大陆其他地方逐渐出现的项目不仅比多数金融市场投资更有利可图;而且正在事实上为未来的经济增长铺平道路。

显而易见,非洲需要更多这样的合资公司才能迎接基础设施所带来的挑战。因此我和非洲商业领袖及决策者共同呼吁非洲机构投资者将5%的资金用于投资当地的基础设施。我们相信只要激励措施得当,基础设施对那些拥有长期负债的机构而言完全可以成为创新且有吸引力的资产类别。能够领导这一目标的部门之一是非洲大陆的养老基金,该部门合计拥有约3万亿美元的资产负债表。

上个月在纽约启动的5%议程行动强调了这样一种理念,即仅有公私合作方式能够改变非洲的基础设施短缺。多年以来,缺乏银行贷款项目阻碍了国际融资。但2012年,非洲联盟通过了非洲基础设施开发计划,启动了超过400个能源、交通运输、水资源和通讯项目。这是一个相当不错的开始——也是5%议程行动赖以存在的基础。

但必须进行某些关键领域的改革。5%议程行动的重要目标是协助升级国家和地区监管框架,从而引导非洲的机构投资。同样,必须开发新的金融产品,以便资产所有者能够将资金直接划拨给基础设施项目。

解锁新的资金池将有助于创造就业机会、鼓励区域一体化及确保非洲拥有能满足子孙后代需求的基础设施项目。但所有这些都取决于能否说服投资者将资金投入非洲建设项目。身为商界领袖和决策者,我们必须确保赚取利润和社会影响的条件能够相互融合。如果发展目标能够和利润保持一致,那么所有人都是赢家。

翻译:Xu Binbin

http://prosyn.org/S9hNonQ/zh;

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