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非洲的工业化十年

Feb 2, 2017 Li Yong

维也纳—在当今互相依存的全球经济中，非洲仍然是弱环。要想实现可持续发展目标，，进而完成联合国2030年可持续发展日程，就必须通过促进迅速而负责任的工业化帮助非洲加快发展。

非洲绝不是注定要拖世界经济的后腿。相反，它很有希望成为世界经济的发动机——并且未来十年就能实现。但是，要想实现其经济潜力，非洲必须工业化。

这一点的重要性在最近的国际论坛中反复强调，包括去年8月的第六届东京非洲发展国际会议（TICAD VI）和9月的G20杭州峰会。G20第一次将非洲——以及全部最不发达国家——的工业化列上日程。非盟的2063年日程也支持非洲工业化。

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Steve Hurst Feb 12, 2017

Why has capital headed for Asia rather than Africa - the answer looks to be stability.

To develop the infrastructure necessary to support industrialization will by some estimates demand investment in the region of 75% of GDP so that is not going to happen anytime soon.

The African time bomb is the ongoing population explosion and it is that which will drive migration North. To name just one country -Nigeria - the population is forecast to exceed the USA's withing 3 decades;but as usual no mention of this issue is ever made by folks talking about sustainability

Furthermore some assessments suggest that AI and robot implementation will reduce not increase China's intake of goods and services from developing economies of which Africa is a big player. Of note is the fact only 20% of China has industrialised.

As globalisation slows the question becomes how relevant industrialisation of Africa will be because the issue is who will consume the goods produced in a market which is likely to be saturated

'The economic growth experienced in recent decades has not been structurally driven, sustainable, or fully inclusive'. Indeed, but unfortunately there is no real reason to think the route proposed will solve that and the backdrop to Africa is Aid dependency which has the risk of only growing as a demand with population growth. As the Aid ceiling approaches held down by static population growth in the West it will need a miracle to avoid a humanitarian crisis. Similarly a static population growth in the West suggests a limit on the demand for consumer goods

Added to this is the water shortage due to develop with climate change which will hit Northern sections of Africa further exacerbating stability

So far from being well placed I would suggest Africa has many fundamental problems, central to which is the population explosion championed as an advantage by the author.

So all I can say is good luck because the willingness of the North to absorb economic migration from Africa looks to be at its limit, which will of course not stop the hungry and desperate.
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