Eric Lafforgue/Art in All of Us

África todavía puede ponerse de pie

JOHANNESBURGO – ¿La luna de miel terminó para las economías africanas? Hace menos de una década, parecía que los sueños económicos del continente empezaban a hacerse realidad. Muchos países experimentaban un crecimiento del PIB y un desarrollo impresionantes. Ahora que la dura realidad de la vulnerabilidad del continente a las condiciones externas desafiantes es un hecho, quedó demostrado lo difícil que resulta sustentar ese crecimiento.

Afectado por la desaceleración del crecimiento en China, un colapso de los precios de las materias primas y un efecto colateral adverso generado por varias crisis de seguridad, el crecimiento anual general del PIB de África promedió apenas el 3,3% en 2010-2015, apenas al ritmo de crecimiento de la población -y estuvo muy por debajo del 4,9% registrado entre 2000 y 2008.

Pero un análisis más profundo sugiere que las cosas tal vez no estén tan mal como parecen, por dos razones esenciales. En primer lugar, si bien el crecimiento promedio ha declinado, algunas economías africanas han prosperado en los últimos años. Por cierto, el PIB agregado se ha visto afectado desde 2010 por un crecimiento tambaleante de los exportadores de petróleo y por crisis relacionadas con la seguridad en el Sahel y en el norte de África. Pero, en el resto de África, el crecimiento del PIB se ha acelerado, del 4,1% en 2000-2010 al 4,4% en 2010-2015.

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