Eric Lafforgue/Art in All of Us

Африка по-прежнему на подъёме

ЙОХАННЕСБУРГ – Медовый месяц для экономики африканских стран окончен? Менее десяти лет назад казалось, что экономические мечты континента становятся реальностью: во многих странах наблюдался впечатляющий рост ВВП и успехи в развитии. Теперь же стала очевидной суровая реальность – континент уязвим перед неблагоприятными внешними обстоятельствами, поэтому сохранение прежних темпов роста оказалось весьма затруднительным.

Из-за замедления экономического роста в Китае, краха цен на сырьё, а также негативных последствий многочисленных кризисов в сфере безопасности, совокупный средний годовой рост ВВП в странах Африки в 2010-2015 годах составил всего лишь 3,3%, едва поспевая за темпами роста населения и резко снизившись по сравнению с уровнем в 4,9%, зафиксированным в 2000-2008 годах.

Однако при более внимательном рассмотрении выясняется, что всё, возможно, не так и плохо, как кажется. Есть две главные причины так думать. Во-первых, несмотря на снижение усреднённых темпов роста, отдельные африканские страны в последние годы продолжали процветать. После 2010 года совокупный ВВП действительно замедлился из-за проблем с ростом в странах-экспортёрах нефти, а также из-за кризисов в сфере безопасности в странах Сахеля и Северной Африки. Однако в остальных государствах Африки рост ВВП ускорился – с 4,1% в 2000-2010 годах до 4,4% в 2010-2015 годах.

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