Eric Lafforgue/Art in All of Us

A África ainda está em ascensão

JOANESBURGO – será que a lua de mel acabou para as economias africanas? Há menos de uma década, parecia que os sonhos económicos do continente estavam a começar a tornar-se realidade, com muitos países a vivenciarem o impressionante crescimento e desenvolvimento do PIB. Agora, uma vez que a dura realidade da vulnerabilidade do continente para desafiar condições externas se estabeleceu, sustentar esse crescimento tem provado ser difícil.

A atravessar dificuldades pela desaceleração do crescimento na China, pela rutura nos preços das mercadorias e pelas repercussões negativas provenientes de inúmeras crises em matéria de segurança, o crescimento total do PIB anual de África atingiu em média apenas 3,3% entre 2010 e 2015, mal podendo acompanhar o crescimento da população – e descendo bruscamente dos 4,9% registados entre 2000 e 2008.

Mas uma análise mais detalhada sugere que as coisas podem não ser tão más quanto parecem, por duas razões essenciais. Em primeiro lugar, embora o crescimento médio tenha diminuído, algumas economias africanas têm prosperado nos últimos anos. Com efeito, o PIB agregado tem sido arrastado desde 2010 pelo vacilante crescimento entre os países exportadores de petróleo e pelas crises relacionadas com a segurança no Sahel e no norte de África; mas no resto de África, o crescimento do PIB acelerou, dos 4,1% em 2000-2010 para os 4,4% em 2010-2015.

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