Economics

Capitalizar os dividendos demográficos de África

Nov 20, 2018 Carl Manlan

LOMÉ – A África alberga a população mais jovem e em mais rápido crescimento do mundo. Com cerca de 20 milhões de jovens preparados para entrarem no mercado de trabalho todos os anos durante as próximas três décadas, o continente tem uma oportunidade para alterar o equilíbrio do crescimento local e global com uma finalidade: empregos. Mas está longe de ser inevitável que tal aconteça.

Para que os países africanos capitalizem este dividendo demográfico, a mão-de-obra futura deverá ser educada, formada, e dispor de oportunidades de emprego adequadas. Não será fácil reunir todas as peças necessárias.

Vivemos tempos incertos para a economia global. As tensões comerciais entre os Estados Unidos e a China ameaçam a integridade das cadeias de valor globais, e a saída iminente da Grã-Bretanha da União Europeia tem potencial para causar ainda mais perturbações. A previsão de Outubro do Fundo Monetário Internacional alerta que a estagnação dos factores económicos históricos poderá fazer baixar o crescimento global neste ano e no próximo para 3,7%, uma diminuição de 0,2 pontos percentuais comparativamente a estimativas anteriores.

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

Subscribe to PS Digital

Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

Henk Crop Dec 10, 2018

I think the term Demograpic Dividend is totally misplaced.

For a constant population you will only need a birthrate of 2,1 child per woman.
In Africa they have birthrate that go up to 7,4.
This high birthrate has a double effect. It keeps the people poor and it raises young people for which there is no work. No work means no future. Therefore I think family planning should receive top priority.

African countries should develop stable Governments. No corruption.
Develop education. Develop some social security.

Apply free market principle. Develop the local economy, farmers, small businesses.

Earning from the export of natural resources should be used to finance the above.

Migration to the EU is counterproductive. Integrating an immigrant in the EU cost more than Euro 100,000.- per immigrant. So the EU will have less money available for support in Africa.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Prashant Kotak Nov 21, 2018

Yet another Economist boasting about a 'Demographic Dividend' resulting from a population bulge. Delusional. I guarantee you it ain't gonna pan out that way. I will paint a different picture of what will instead happen, and I challenge anyone to put forward *any* cogent arguments why my nightmare scenario won't happen.

Africa urbanising and industrialising won't provide decades of employment for Africa's millions. This time, automation will do most of the work. Over the next decade and a half, Africa's elites, and external countries and companies operating in Africa will bring in automation and AI tech from advanced nations, and cut out vast swathes of Africa's poorest from employment. But not just blue collar work. Traditional urban office work is also set to become mostly automated. The pressure is on in Africa to vacate the countryside and urbanise, but just for a second, project the situation in a decade and a half: vast slums containing millions of unemployed people surrounding little city centers with shiny skyscrapers, because the cities will provide no work, *none* of the traditional employments of the twentieth century - those shiny skyscrapers will provide advanced work for a few hundred thousand IT people and 'Facilitators' instead of jobs in the millions in factories and offices. And the problem for Africa is compounded by the brutal fact that Africa neither innovates, nor owns any of this tech, nor does it have anywhere near sufficient numbers of STEM educated and trained people to be able to ride over to new types of employments like programming, so Africa cannot participate in the creation of the next wave of tech.

So, I am compelled to ask the bleakest of questions: Do we face another Heart of Darkness in Africa in a decade and a half?
- lt lee Nov 22, 2018
  
  Largely agree. But a connected Africa with more educated populace would mean better and more equitably distributed return for its rich resources. AI would reduce job growth. But the negative impact would be bigger in information workers' jobs more than semi-skilled workers' jobs.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.