الإستفادة من الميزة السكانية لافريقيا

Nov 20, 2018 Carl Manlan

لومي-إن افريقيا هي موطن لإكثر سكان العالم شبابا واسرعهم نموا ومع وجود 20 مليون شاب يستعدون للإنضمام لسوق العمل كل عام للعقود الثلاثة القادمة ، فإن القارة لديها فرصة لإحداث تحول في توازن النمو المحلي والعالمي تجاه تحقيق هدف خلق الوظائف ولكن من غير المؤكد تماما انها ستتمكن من تحقيق ذلك .

حتى تستفيد الدول الافريقية من هذه الميزة السكانية لإفريقيا ، يجب ان تكون قوة العمل المستقبلية متعلمة ومدربة ولديها فرص توظيفية كافية علما ان ايجاد كل تلك العناصر لن تكون عملية سهله.

إن وضع الإقتصاد الدولي يكتنفه الغموض فالتوترات التجارية بين الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية والصين تهدد سلامة سلاسل القيمة العالمية كما ان الخروج البريطاني المرتقب من الإتحاد الاوروبي يمكن أن يؤدي للمزيد من الاضطراب. لقد حذرت توقعات صندوق النقد الدولي لشهر اكتوبر من انه بينما تتباطأ المحركات التاريخية للإقتصاد فإن النمو العالمي لهذا العام والعام القادم يمكن ان ينخفض الى 3،7% وهو انخفاض بمقدار 0،2 نقطة مئوية مقارنة بالتقديرات السابقة.

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Henk Crop Dec 10, 2018

I think the term Demograpic Dividend is totally misplaced.

For a constant population you will only need a birthrate of 2,1 child per woman.
In Africa they have birthrate that go up to 7,4.
This high birthrate has a double effect. It keeps the people poor and it raises young people for which there is no work. No work means no future. Therefore I think family planning should receive top priority.

African countries should develop stable Governments. No corruption.
Develop education. Develop some social security.

Apply free market principle. Develop the local economy, farmers, small businesses.

Earning from the export of natural resources should be used to finance the above.

Migration to the EU is counterproductive. Integrating an immigrant in the EU cost more than Euro 100,000.- per immigrant. So the EU will have less money available for support in Africa.
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Prashant Kotak Nov 21, 2018

Yet another Economist boasting about a 'Demographic Dividend' resulting from a population bulge. Delusional. I guarantee you it ain't gonna pan out that way. I will paint a different picture of what will instead happen, and I challenge anyone to put forward *any* cogent arguments why my nightmare scenario won't happen.

Africa urbanising and industrialising won't provide decades of employment for Africa's millions. This time, automation will do most of the work. Over the next decade and a half, Africa's elites, and external countries and companies operating in Africa will bring in automation and AI tech from advanced nations, and cut out vast swathes of Africa's poorest from employment. But not just blue collar work. Traditional urban office work is also set to become mostly automated. The pressure is on in Africa to vacate the countryside and urbanise, but just for a second, project the situation in a decade and a half: vast slums containing millions of unemployed people surrounding little city centers with shiny skyscrapers, because the cities will provide no work, *none* of the traditional employments of the twentieth century - those shiny skyscrapers will provide advanced work for a few hundred thousand IT people and 'Facilitators' instead of jobs in the millions in factories and offices. And the problem for Africa is compounded by the brutal fact that Africa neither innovates, nor owns any of this tech, nor does it have anywhere near sufficient numbers of STEM educated and trained people to be able to ride over to new types of employments like programming, so Africa cannot participate in the creation of the next wave of tech.

So, I am compelled to ask the bleakest of questions: Do we face another Heart of Darkness in Africa in a decade and a half?
- lt lee Nov 22, 2018
  
  Largely agree. But a connected Africa with more educated populace would mean better and more equitably distributed return for its rich resources. AI would reduce job growth. But the negative impact would be bigger in information workers' jobs more than semi-skilled workers' jobs.
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