Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Ещё один японский урок

НЬЮ-ХЕЙВЕН – Перед нами ещё один сюрприз из длинной серии сюрпризов отрицательной инфляции. В США начался процесс снижения так называемого базового индекса потребительских цен (core CPI), в который не включаются цены на продовольствие и энергоресурсы, причём это произошло ровно в тот момент, когда ожидался его рост. За три месяца, завершившиеся в мае, базовый индекс потребительских цен практически не изменился, оставаясь всего лишь на 1,7% выше уровня годичной давности. Для американской экономики, которая, как принято считать, приближается к желанному состоянию полной занятости, эта новость стала резким звонком пробуждения, причём особенно для Федерального резерва, который уже снял все преграды на пути возвращения инфляции к целевому уровню 2%.

На другой стороне планеты аналогичная драма разыгрывается в Японии. Впрочем, в дефляционной японской экономике сюжет этой драмы намного жёстче.

По данным за апрель, базовый индекс потребительских цен Японии остаётся практически неизменным относительно уровня годичной давности; в мае аналогичный результат  зафиксирован в столичном регионе Токио. Для Банка Японии, который использовал беспрецедентный арсенал нетрадиционного монетарного оружия с целью остановить длившуюся 19 лет дефляцию (снижение цен на 16,5% с 1994 по 2013 годы), это стало не просто резким пробуждением. Это позор, граничащий с разгромом.

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