Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Noch eine Lehre aus Japan

NEW HAVEN – Aus der langen Reihe an Inflationsüberraschungen hat sich nun eine weitere eingestellt. In den Vereinigten Staaten sank der so genannte  Kern-CPI (Verbraucherpreisindex) – in dem Nahrungsmittel und Energie nicht berücksichtigt sind – zu einem Zeitpunkt, da man eigentlich einen Anstieg erwartet hätte. In den Monaten März, April und Mai wies der Kern-CPI praktisch unveränderte Werte auf und lag lediglich 1,7 Prozent über dem Wert zu Beginn des Jahres. Für eine US-Ökonomie, die sich laut allgemeiner Annahme dem heiligen Gral der Vollbeschäftigung nähert, ist dies ein böses Erwachen – insbesondere für die Notenbank Federal Reserve, die alle Hebel in Bewegung setzte, um die Inflation wieder auf den Zielwert von 2 Prozent zu bringen.

Auf der anderen Seite der Welt spielt sich in Japan weiterhin eine ähnliche Geschichte ab. Doch für die deflationsanfällige japanische Wirtschaft ist das ein noch viel härterer Schlag.    

Im April verlief die Entwicklung des japanischen Kern-CPI im Vergleich zu den Werten Anfang des Jahres im Wesentlichen flach, wobei auch im Mai für den Großraum Tokio eine ähnliche Entwicklung zu verzeichnen war. Für die Bank of Japan (BoJ), die sich eines beispiellosen Arsenals an unkonventionellen Waffen zur Bekämpfung einer von 1994 bis 2013 währenden Deflation von 16,5 Prozent bediente, ist dies mehr als nur ein böses Erwachen. Es ist vielmehr eine an Niederlage grenzende Schmach.  

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