Dean Rohrer

¿Un «New Deal» mundial?

ATENAS – El Fondo Monetario Internacional admitió tardíamente haber subestimado de manera significativa el daño que la austeridad tendría sobre las tasas de crecimiento de la Unión Europea. Esto resalta el carácter contraproducente de las recetas «ortodoxas» sobre las causas de la crisis de la deuda posterior al derrumbe financiero de 2008-2009.

La teoría convencional sugiere que si un solo país (o un grupo de países) consolida sus finanzas, puede esperar una reducción en las tasas de interés, el debilitamiento de su moneda y una mejora en su situación comercial. Pero, como esto no es posible en todas las grandes economías simultáneamente –la austeridad de un país (o de un grupo de países) implica una menor demanda para los productos de los demás– esas políticas eventualmente conducen a situaciones que buscan empobrecer a los vecinos. De hecho, por esta dinámica –contra la cual luchó John Maynard Keynes– la Gran Depresión de la década de 1930 fue tan nefasta.

Los problemas actuales se exacerban por la insuficiente demanda privada en las economías avanzadas –especialmente de consumo de los hogares– para compensar la reducción de la demanda causada por la austeridad. Durante las últimas dos décadas, el consumo impulsó el crecimiento de esos países y alcanzó participaciones históricamente altas en el PBI.

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