Dean Rohrer

Глобальный «Новый курс»?

АФИНЫ – Запоздалое признание Международного валютного фонда в том, что они значительно недооценили ущерб, который предполагаемые меры строгой экономии могли нанести показателям экономического роста Европейского Союза, подчеркивает деструктивный характер «ортодоксальных» рецептов устранения причин долгового кризиса, который последовал за финансовым обвалом 2008-2009 годов.

Согласно общепризнанной теории, предполагается, что в одной стране (или группе стран) с помощью консолидации собственных финансов можно добиться снижения процентных ставок, ослабления валюты и улучшения торговли. Однако, поскольку это не может произойти для всех крупных экономик одновременно – в одной стране (или группе стран) жесткая экономия вызывает меньший спрос на продукцию других стран, и в конечном итоге подобная политика приводит к обнищанию соседей. Действительно, именно эта динамика сделала Великую депрессию 1930-х годов такой мрачной, и именно с ней боролся Джон Мейнард Кейнс.

Сегодняшние проблемы усугубляются отсутствием достаточного спроса в частном секторе (в том числе и в потреблении домашних хозяйств) стран с развитой экономикой, который необходим для компенсаций потерь спроса, вызванных экономией. В последние два десятилетия именно потребление питало экономический рост этих стран, достигнув исторически высоких показателей, таких как доля от ВВП.

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