Ajuste y reprogramación o demora e incumplimiento de pago

BRUSELAS – Mientras Grecia activa su paquete de rescate de 45.000 millones de euros con el Fondo Monetario Internacional y la Unión Europea, cada vez resulta más evidente que se necesita una nueva estrategia mucho más integral. Es necesario abordar dos problemas: la credibilidad del programa de estabilización fiscal de Grecia y cómo cubrir la brecha de financiamiento a mediano plazo del país.

La magnitud del esfuerzo de ajuste fiscal que se le exige a Grecia ya es bien conocida. El déficit tiene que reducirse en al menos 10 puntos porcentuales del PBI (desde alrededor del 13% a menos del 3% del PBI). El problema esencial, que hasta el momento no se ha abordado, es que un ajuste fiscal en esta escala requiere que el gobierno tome dos medidas que sólo se pueden implementar si se cuenta con una amplia aprobación de la sociedad: un recorte de los salarios y un recorte del gasto social. Ambas medidas hoy son tan impopulares en Grecia como inevitables.

Los problemas de competitividad del país también son bien conocidos. Los costos unitarios de mano de obra se han incrementado un 10%-20% más que en Alemania. Suponiendo que Grecia quiera quedarse en la eurozona, una "devaluación interna" -vale decir, un recorte significativo de los salarios nominales- es inevitable.

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