Ajuste y reprogramación o demora e incumplimiento de pago

BRUSELAS – Mientras Grecia activa su paquete de rescate de 45.000 millones de euros con el Fondo Monetario Internacional y la Unión Europea, cada vez resulta más evidente que se necesita una nueva estrategia mucho más integral. Es necesario abordar dos problemas: la credibilidad del programa de estabilización fiscal de Grecia y cómo cubrir la brecha de financiamiento a mediano plazo del país.

La magnitud del esfuerzo de ajuste fiscal que se le exige a Grecia ya es bien conocida. El déficit tiene que reducirse en al menos 10 puntos porcentuales del PBI (desde alrededor del 13% a menos del 3% del PBI). El problema esencial, que hasta el momento no se ha abordado, es que un ajuste fiscal en esta escala requiere que el gobierno tome dos medidas que sólo se pueden implementar si se cuenta con una amplia aprobación de la sociedad: un recorte de los salarios y un recorte del gasto social. Ambas medidas hoy son tan impopulares en Grecia como inevitables.

Los problemas de competitividad del país también son bien conocidos. Los costos unitarios de mano de obra se han incrementado un 10%-20% más que en Alemania. Suponiendo que Grecia quiera quedarse en la eurozona, una "devaluación interna" -vale decir, un recorte significativo de los salarios nominales- es inevitable.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now