Anpassung und Umschuldung oder Zahlungsverzug und Bankrott

BRÜSSEL – Da Griechenland nun das 45 Milliarden Euro schwere Rettungspaket des Internationalen Währungsfonds und der Europäischen Union in Anspruch nimmt, ist klar, dass ein neuer, viel umfassenderer Ansatz nötig ist. Dabei müssen zwei Probleme in Angriff genommen werden: Die Glaubwürdigkeit des griechischen Programms zur Stabilisierung des Haushalts und die Frage, wie man die mittelfristige Finanzierungslücke des Landes schließt.   

Das Ausmaß der in Griechenland erforderlichen haushaltspolitischen Anpassung ist nun bekannt. Das Defizit muss um mindestens 10 Prozentpunkte des BIP gesenkt werden (von etwa 13 % des BIP auf weniger als 3 % des BIP). Das bisher noch nicht in Angriff genommene Hauptproblem ist, dass eine Anpassung diesen Ausmaßes zwei Schritte erfordert, die von einer Regierung nur mit breiter öffentlicher Unterstützung umgesetzt werden können: eine Kürzung der Löhne sowie eine Kürzung der Sozialausgaben. Beide Maßnahmen sind in Griechenland momentan ebenso unbeliebt wie unvermeidbar.

Auch die Probleme des Landes hinsichtlich der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit sind bekannt. Die Lohnstückkosten sind um 10 bis 20 % stärker gestiegen als in Deutschland. Unter der Annahme, dass Griechenland in der Eurozone bleiben möchte, ist eine „interne Abwertung“, also die signifikante Kürzung der Nominallöhne, unabdingbar.

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