Repenser le tabou de la monétisation

LONDRES – A présent que le rythme de la réduction progressive du programme d'achat d'actifs de la Réserve fédérale américaine a été débattu jusqu’à plus soif, l'attention va de plus en plus se tourner vers les perspectives de hausses des taux d'intérêt. Mais, déjà, une autre question se profile à l’horizon : comment les banques centrales parviendront-elles à « en finir » définitivement avec la politique monétaire non conventionnelle et à ramener leurs bilans gonflés par la politique monétaire non conventionnelle à des niveaux « normaux » ?

Pour beaucoup, un problème plus vaste doit être abordé. La réduction entreprise par la Fed ne fait que ralentir la croissance de son bilan. Les autorités devraient encore vendre 3 billions de dollars d’obligations pour revenir au niveau d’avant-crise.

La vérité rarement admise, cependant, est qu'il n'y a pas besoin de réduire les bilans des banques centrales. Ils pourraient rester plus importants en permanence ; en outre, pour certains pays, augmenter de façon permanente le bilan de la banque centrale permettrait de réduire le fardeau de la dette publique.

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