Es mejor ser menos

LONDRES – ¿Es necesariamente malo que la población esté disminuyendo? Sin duda uno podría pensarlo, a juzgar por los lamentos de algunos economistas y responsables del diseño de políticas en economías avanzadas, donde las personas están viviendo más años y las tasas de natalidad han caído por debajo de los niveles de sustitución. De hecho, los beneficios de la estabilidad demográfica –o incluso una ligera disminución– compensan cualquier efecto perjudicial.

Sin duda, una población que envejece plantea desafíos evidentes para los sistemas de pensión. Además, como han señalado economistas como Paul Krugman, también podría significar que las economías avanzadas no solo se enfrentan a una recuperación lenta, sino también al riesgo de un “estancamiento continuo”.

Cuando hay un aumento de la población más lento, disminuye la necesidad de invertir en reservas de capital. Mientras tanto, las personas que planifican jubilarse más tarde pueden ahorrar más para asegurar pensiones convenientes. Si estos ahorros exceden las necesidades de inversión, podrían conducir a una demanda agregada inadecuada, lo que deprimiría el crecimiento económico.

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