贸易的迷思

发自伦敦——自2008年以来,全球贸易的增长幅度稍微落后于全球GDP的增长。世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判以失败告终。在各特殊利益集团的阻挠之下,跨大西洋和跨太平洋的贸易谈判也步履维艰。尽管许多专家担心保护主义会破坏全球化并威胁到全球经济增长,但全球贸易增长放缓很可能是无法避免的,而贸易自由化的重要性也在不断降低。

可以肯定的是,过去65年以来,贸易的快速增长在经济发展中扮演了至关重要的作用,使得发达经济体的各行业平均关税从超过30%暴跌到5%以下。欧洲单一市场的建立促进了欧盟内部贸易的增长。日本、韩国以及台湾以出口主导型增长实现了经济的快速赶超。中国在过去30年中遵循了同样的路径。从1990年到2008年,贸易增速相当于全球产出增速的两倍。

但是贸易不可能永远比GDP增长得更快。事实上,即使没有贸易壁垒,贸易增长也可能会在某些时期明显慢于GDP增长。有几方面因素使得我们正在进入这样一个时期。

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