赞美碎片化

发自伦敦——新兴市场再次成为了众人的焦点。投资者和银行突然不愿为为经常账户赤字提供短期贷款融资。例如南非尽管经济增长缓慢,但不得不提高利率来吸引资金。土耳其的利率提升也非常引人注目。对它们以及其他新兴国家来说,2014年可能会被证明是动荡的一年。

如果波动变得极端,一些国家可能会考虑限制资本流出,国际货币基金组织目前认为这个做法在特定的情况下可能有用。但根本问题在于如何应对短期资本流入所带来的影响。

直到最近,正统经济理论认为该问题是不成立的。人们赞美金融自由化就是因为它能使资本流向生产力最高的地方,从而促进国家和全球的增长。

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