债务和需求

伦敦—前美国财政部长拉里·萨默斯(Larry Summers)最近引起了一桩公案。他警告说,发达经济体可能陷入持续经济停滞。许多人反对他的这一长期趋势看法,但数据支持他。是的,美国和英国的经济增长有所抬头,欧元区经济已不再收缩,日本也以为内“安倍经济学”而显示出积极信号。但全球复苏仍然非常虚弱,大部分发达经济体的表现仍比危机前增长趋势低10—15%。

不难看出为何复苏乏力。危机前私人债务创造过多和随后的去杠杆化努力极大地削弱了需求。

财政赤字有助于抵消需求不足,但也造成公共债务上升。杠杆从未消失;只是转移到了公共部门——造成了可能将持续多年甚至几十年的债务积压。消除这些债务可能需要巨量债务减记或持久货币化。

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