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El talón de Aquiles de la Trumpeconomía

NEW HAVEN – La estrategia económica de Donald Trump está plagada de imperfecciones. El presidente electo de Estados Unidos quiere restablecer el crecimiento a través de un gasto basado en déficit en un país con una escasez crónica de ahorro. Esto apunta a una mayor compresión del ahorro nacional, lo que hace que una ampliación de una brecha comercial ya sobredimensionada resulte inevitable.

Esa dinámica revela el talón de Aquiles de la Trumpeconomía: un sesgo proteccionista evidente que choca frontalmente con la dependencia ineludible de Estados Unidos del ahorro externo y de los déficits comerciales para sustentar el crecimiento económico.

La administración Trump no heredará una economía estadounidense fuerte y sólida. El ritmo de recuperación desde la Gran Recesión ha sido la mitad de lento que los rebotes cíclicos normales -lo cual es más inquietante dada la enorme magnitud de la contracción en 2008-2009-. Y los ahorros, el germen de la prosperidad futura, siguen siendo terriblemente escasos. La llamada tasa de ahorro nacional neta -la suma ajustada por depreciación del ahorro de empresas, hogares y gobierno- era de apenas el 2,4% del ingreso nacional a mediados de 2016. Si bien eso es una mejora respecto de la posición de ahorro negativa sin precedentes en 2008-2011, sigue estando lejos del promedio del 6,3% que prevaleció en las últimas tres décadas del siglo XX.

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