Wachstum erreichen in einer Welt mit neuem Gleichgewicht

MAILAND – Obwohl sich die Finanzkrise entspannt, ist es unwahrscheinlich, dass sich die Aussichten auf Wachstum für die Weltwirtschaft verbessern werden. Das ist teilweise unvermeidlich. Doch ist es auch das Ergebnis einer schwachen Koordinierung zwischen den Regierungen, während die Welt ein neues Gleichgewicht sucht.

Vor der Krise sparten die amerikanischen Verbraucher im Durchschnitt entweder gar nichts oder sie häuften Schulden an. Das hat sich jetzt geändert. Da das Vermögen der Haushalte durch den Zusammenbruch des Immobilienmarktes und andere rückläufige Vermögenspreise schwer angeschlagen wurde, sind Renten und Altersvorsorge durcheinander geraten. Weil die Preise für Vermögenswerte das Niveau von vor der Krise in absehbarer Zeit nicht erreichen werden (ohne eine weitere Blase aufzupumpen und erneute Instabilität zu riskieren), ist die Sparquote der privaten Haushalte in den Vereinigten Staaten auf etwa 5 % des verfügbaren Einkommens gestiegen und wird wahrscheinlich weiter steigen.

Dieser Rückzug des US-Verbrauchers ist Teil (vielleicht die halbe Miete) der neuen Austarierung der globalen Wirtschaft. Amerikas Gleichgewicht zwischen Ersparnissen und Investitionen wiederherzustellen bedeutet eine Verringerung der globalen Gesamtnachfrage um etwa 800 Milliarden US-Dollar.

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