Renouer avec la croissance dans un monde rééquilibré

MILAN – Bien que la crise financière perde peu à peu de son intensité, les perspectives de croissance de l’économie mondiale resteront sans doute moroses, ce qui est, en partie, inévitable. Mais, dans le contexte d’un rééquilibrage de l’économie mondiale, le manque de coordination des gouvernements est aussi responsable.

Avant la crise, les consommateurs américains, en moyenne, n’épargnaient rien ou accumulaient des dettes. Cela a changé. La richesse des ménages a été sérieusement écornée par la chute des prix de l’immobilier et autres baisses des actifs et les plans d’épargne-retraite ont suivi en corollaire. Parce que les prix des actifs ne retrouveront pas dans un avenir prévisible leur niveau d’avant la crise (du moins pas sans créer une nouvelle bulle spéculative et entraîner un retour de l’instabilité), l’épargne des ménages a progressé pour atteindre 5 pour cent environ du revenu disponible, et devrait augmenter encore.

Ce retrait du consommateur américain est une partie (et peut-être la moitié) du processus de rééquilibrage de l’économie mondiale. Rétablir l’équilibre de la corrélation épargne-investissements implique une baisse de 800 milliards de dollars environ de la demande agrégée globale.

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