تحقيق النمو في عالم متوازن

ميلانو ـ رغم قُرب انفراج الأزمة المالية فمن غير المرجح أن ترتفع التوقعات الخاصة بنمو الاقتصاد العالمي قريباً. ويكاد يكون ذلك محتماً في جزء منه، ولكنه أيضاً كان نتيجة للتنسيق الهزيل بين الحكومات مع استرداد الاقتصاد العالمي لتوازنه.

قبل الأزمة، كان المستهلك الأميركي في المتوسط إما لا يدخر شيئاً أو تتراكم الديون عليه. ولكن هذا تغير الآن. فبعد الأضرار الجسيمة التي لحقت بثروة الأسر الأميركية بسبب انهيار أسعار المنازل وانحدار أسعار غيرها من الأصول، أصبحت معاشات التقاعد والتدابير الخاصة بها في حالة من الفوضى. ولأن أسعار الأصول لن تصل إلى مستويات ما قبل الأزمة في أي وقت قريب (وهذا من دون تضخيم فقاعة أخرى والمجازفة بتجدد حالة عدم الاستقرار)، فقد ارتفعت مدخرات الأسر في الولايات المتحدة إلى حوالي 5% من الدخل القابل للتصرف، وسوف تستمر في الارتفاع في المستقبل على الأرجح.

وهذا الانسحاب من جانب المستهلكين في الولايات المتحدة يشكل جزءاً (وربما النصف) من عملية إعادة التوازن إلى الاقتصاد العالمي. إن استعادة التوازن بين الادخار والاستثمار في الولايات المتحدة يعني ضمناً انخفاض إجمالي الطلب العالمي بما يعادل 800 مليار دولار تقريباً.

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