Eine Autopsie der Ölgesellschaft Yukos

Yukos, einst Russlands führende Ölgesellschaft und Liebling internationaler Investoren, liegt in den letzten Zügen. In einer Auktion, die viele für manipuliert hielten, wurden die besten Vermögenswerte des Unternehmens an einen zuvor unbekannten Bieter versteigert und befinden sich nun wieder in den Händen des russischen Staates. Das übrig gebliebene Gerippe macht dem Unternehmen weiterhin das Leben schwer, insbesondere in einem Gerichtssaal in Houston, Texas. Doch diese Zuckungen werden die Leiche nicht wieder zum Leben erwecken. Jetzt geht es darum, ob die russische Wirtschaft dasselbe Schicksal wie Yukos ereilen wird.

Der durch die Yukos-Affäre verursachte Schaden für Russlands Aussichten auf Wirtschaftswachstum könnte sich noch als vorübergehend erweisen, wenn sich das Spektakel nicht mit anderen Unternehmen wiederholt. Doch ob sich die Yukos-Affäre als Einzelfall erweist, wie der Kreml beharrlich behauptet, hängt davon ab, wie die Motive von Russlands Präsidenten Wladimir Putin zu interpretieren sind.

Eine Möglichkeit besteht darin, dass Putin sein Ziel, Russlands BIP innerhalb von zehn Jahren zu verdoppeln, nicht aufrichtig verfolgt. Neuere Meinungsumfragen deuten darauf hin, dass ein großer Teil der zynischen russischen Öffentlichkeit diese Meinung vertritt. Laut dieser Ansicht waren die Privatisierungen der 1990er Jahre ein Betrug, der nur den herrschenden Mächten nützte.

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