Autopsie de Ioukos

Ioukos, autrefois principale compagnie pétrolière de Russie, favori des investisseurs internationaux, est à l’agonie. Lors d’une vente aux enchères dont beaucoup pensent qu’elle était truquée, les principaux actifs de la société ont été vendus à un acheteur inconnu jusque-là, et sont maintenant entre les mains de l’Etat russe. Certains se battent encore pour la survie de la société, notamment devant un tribunal de Houston, au Texas. Mais ces sursauts ne pourront pas réveiller un cadavre. La question aujourd’hui est de savoir si l’économie russe est vouée au même sort que Ioukos.

Les conséquences négatives de l’affaire Ioukos pour les perspectives de croissance économique de la Russie pourraient s’avérer temporaires, à condition que l’expérience ne se répète pas avec d’autres entreprises. Or pour savoir si, comme l’affirme le Kremlin, Ioukos est un cas isolé, il faut déchiffrer les motivations du Président Poutine.

Il se peut que Poutine ne soit pas sincère quant à son objectif de doubler le PIB de la Russie en une décennie. Si l’on en croit de récents sondages d’opinion, c’est ce que pensent cyniquement beaucoup de Russes. De ce point de vue, les privatisations des années 90 n’étaient qu’une escroquerie au service des puissants.

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