¿Un año de discordia entre Estados Unidos y China?

NUEVA YORK – En 2009, la revista Forbes nombró al presidente estadounidense, Barack Obama, y al presidente chino, Hu Jintao, “las personas más poderosas del mundo”. En 2010, descubriremos que ninguno de ellos tiene el poder de mantener en cauce las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y China. Estas son malas noticias para quienes creen que la cooperación chino-norteamericana es esencial para revivir la economía global, enfrentar el desafío del cambio climático, contener las amenazas de la proliferación nuclear y hacer frente a una serie de otros problemas sin fronteras. También son malas noticias para Estados Unidos y China.

Diez es el número a tener en cuenta: el 10% de desempleo en Estados Unidos y el potencial crecimiento del 10% del PBI de China van a colisionar como frentes climáticos generando una tormenta. El populismo norteamericano se topará con el orgullo chino. Y el clima político febril creado por las elecciones de mitad de período en Estados Unidos implica que la relación bilateral más importante del mundo va camino a una verdadera turbulencia este año.

Estados Unidos y China hoy conviven con una suerte de destrucción económica mutuamente asegurada, y ambos presidentes lo saben. Estados Unidos necesita a China para financiar su creciente deuda, y China necesita a los norteamericanos para comprar sus productos.

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