Ein Jahr der Missklänge zwischen den USA und China?

NEW YORK – Im Jahr 2009 waren US-Präsident Barack Obama und der chinesische Präsident Hu Jintao dem Forbes Magazine zufolge die „mächtigsten Personen der Welt“. Im Jahr 2010 werden wir feststellen, dass keiner von beiden die Macht hat, die US-chinesischen Beziehungen auf Kurs zu halten. Das sind schlechte Nachrichten für alle die glauben, dass die Zusammenarbeit zwischen den USA und China ausschlaggebend für eine Wiederbelebung der Weltwirtschaft, die Bewältigung des Problems des Klimawandels, die Eindämmung der Bedrohung durch die Verbreitung von Kernwaffen und eine ganze Reihe anderer grenzenloser Probleme ist. Es sind auch für Amerika und China schlechte Nachrichten.

Zehn heißt die Zahl, die man im Auge behalten muss: Die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA in Höhe von 10% und das potenzielle BIP-Wachstum in China in Höhe von 10% werden wie Wetterfronten aufeinanderprallen, die einen Sturm erzeugen. Amerikanischer Populismus wird auf chinesischen Stolz treffen. Und die fieberhafte Atmosphäre, die durch die Zwischenwahlen in den USA entsteht, bedeutet, dass die wichtigste bilaterale Beziehung der Welt in diesem Jahr auf echte Turbulenzen zusteuert.

Gegenwärtig leben Amerika und China mit einer Art gegenseitig zugesicherten wirtschaftlichen Zerstörung und beide Präsidenten wissen das. Die USA brauchen China, um ihre steigende Verschuldung zu finanzieren und China braucht Amerikaner, die seine Produkte kaufen.

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