中美纷争的一年?

发自纽约——就在2009年,《福布斯》杂志把美国总统奥巴马和中国国家主席胡锦涛并列为世界最有权势的人。然而到了2010年,我们会发现这两位都无法将中美关系维持在一个正常的轨道上。这对于那些将中美合作视为重振全球经济,迎接气候变化挑战,遏制核扩散威胁,以及跨国合作应对各类难题所必不可少的前提的人来说,这是个坏消息。而与此同时,这对中美两国来说,也是一个坏消息。

10是个值得关注的数字:美国10%的失业率和中国10%的潜在GDP增长注定了两国要发生摩擦,正如不同气候相遇会产生风暴一样。美国的民粹主义将与中国的傲慢态度直接碰撞,而由美国中期大选所营造的狂热政治气氛则意味着,世界上最重要的双边关系将在今年走向真正的动荡。

中美双方目前无疑正处于一种相互毁灭的经济关系之下,而双方领导人对此也都心知肚明。美国需要中国为其巨额债务融资,而中国则需要美国人购买“中国制造”。

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