Мир конвергенции

ВАШИНГТОН, ОКРУГ КОЛУМБИЯ. На протяжении почти двух столетий, начиная примерно с 1800 года, в истории мировой экономики наблюдалось исключительно расхождение средних уровней дохода. В относительном выражении богатые страны стали еще богаче. Рост присутствовал и в бедных странах, но был медленнее, чем рост в богатых странах, и дифференциация в процветании между богатыми и бедными странами возросла.

Эта «дивергенция» была очень заметна в колониальные времена. Ее рост замедлился после 1940-х годов, но только начиная где-то с 1990-х можно было наблюдать совершенно новые тенденции: сближение среднего дохода в группе богатых стран и остальном мире. С 1990-х по 2010-е годы рост среднего дохода на душу населения в развивающихся странах и странах с формирующейся рыночной экономикой был почти в три раза быстрее, чем рост среднего дохода в Европе, Северной Америке и Японии, где темпы роста снизились или практически не изменились в сравнении с темпами роста на протяжении почти двух веков.

Это было революционное изменение, но продолжится ли эта 20-летняя тенденция? Будет ли конвергенция идти быстрыми темпами, или это будет переходный этап в истории мировой экономики?

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