Světové sbližování

WASHINGTON, DC – Zhruba od roku 1800 se historický vývoj globálního hospodářství téměř dvě staletí obecně vyznačoval rozbíhavostí průměrných příjmů. Nahlíženo relativně, bohaté země dále bohatly. K růstu docházelo i v chudších zemích, ale byl pomalejší než v bohatých, takže rozdíl v prosperitě mezi bohatými a chudými zeměmi se zvětšoval.

V koloniálních dobách byla tato „divergence“ velmi výrazná. Od 50. let 20. století zpomalila, ale až kolem roku 1990 bylo možné vysledovat nový trend – konvergenci mezi průměrnými příjmy ve skupině bohatých zemí a zbytku světa. V letech 1990 až 2010 průměrný důchod na hlavu v rozvíjejících se a rozvojových zemích rostl téměř třikrát rychleji než průměrný příjem v Evropě, Severní Americe a Japonsku, oproti nižším či přinejlepším shodným tempům růstu po bezmála dvě staletí.

To je revoluční změna, ale bude tento dvacetiletý trend pokračovat? Bude konvergence nadále svižná, anebo půjde v hospodářských dějinách světa o přechodnou fázi?

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