趋同的世界

华盛顿—从大约1800年开始,近两个世界以来,全球经济大体上是一部平均收入逐渐分化的历史。从相对值看,发达国家越来越富。穷国也有经济增长,但比不上发达国家,发达国家和贫困国家之间的繁荣差距越拉越大。

 “分化”在殖民地时代便已十分显著。20世纪40年代以后,分化之势有所放缓,但直到1990年前后,新的趋势才开始浮现——即发达国家的平均收入和世界其他部分开始趋同。从1990年到2010年,新兴和发展中国家平均人均收入比欧洲、北美和日本增长快出两倍,而在此前近两个世纪中,一直是后者胜出或打成平手。

这是一个革命性的变化,但这20年来的趋势会持续下去吗?趋同会保持现在的快进趋势,还是会成为世界经济史上被翻过去的一页?

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