废煤

墨尔本—今年早些时候,大气中的二氧化碳浓度达到了百万分之400(ppm)。大气二氧化碳浓度上一次达到如此高水平是在300万年前,当时的海平面比现在高24米。如今,海平面正在再次上升。去年9月,北冰洋冰盖面积创下了有记录以来新低。自1880年有全球记录以来,十个最热年份中的九个出现在21世纪。

一些气象学家认为400 ppm的大气二氧化碳浓度已经超过了气候灾难触发点,数十亿人有成为难民的危险。他们说,我们需要让大气二氧化碳水平下降至350 ppm。这个数字被写入了草根运动350.org的名字,188个国家的志愿者参与了这个旨在解决气候变化问题的组织。

其他气候学家则更加乐观:他们指出,如果我们让大气二氧化碳上升至450 ppm,并由此带来2摄氏度的气温升高,我们仍有66.6%的机会避免灾难。这意味着仍有三分之一的可能爆发灾难——比俄罗斯轮盘赌的风险还高。据预计,我们将在2038年超过450 ppm。

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