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发自伯克利——英国经济学家约翰·斯图亚特·穆勒(John Stuart Mill)早在十九世纪初就道出了宏观经济的核心本质:一旦社会产生对金融资产的庞大需求,那么市面上几乎所有商品,服务和劳动力的供需都会由此产生巨大缺口,而这一基本事实则是大灾难的根源。

某一小类商品出现正常的供需缺口并不是什么大问题,因为其他商品的超量生产足以填补这一缺口。那些需求不足的行业削减员工,而那些供不应求的行业则雇佣他们。因此经济很快会再度恢复平衡,同时就业也全面复苏——并最终使就业和生产都朝着更适应消费者需要的方向发展。

与此相反,由当前对金融资产过度需求所引发的供需缺口则是经济衰退之源。毕竟那些失业工人无法轻易生产出那些金融市场无法足量提供的资产——须知货币和债券都需要专业投资级别的知识。因此失业者的数量要多于重新就业的劳动者数量。而随着就业和收入下降,对商品的消费也进一步下跌,整个经济随之逐步陷入萧条。

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