Zeit für Experimente

CAMBRIDGE, MASS.: Zum Jahresbeginn 2009 ist die Weltwirtschaft stärker von Unsicherheit (und Beklemmung) geprägt als zu irgendeinem Zeitpunkt der jüngeren Vergangenheit. Obwohl die Finanzkrise in den USA und in Europa eingedämmt scheint, wird ihre volle Wirkung noch eine ganze Weile unklar sein. Den hoch entwickelten Ländern steht der schlimmste Abschwung seit der Großen Depression ins Haus. Doch wie lange und wie schwer wird diese Rezession sein, und wie stark wird sie die Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer in Mitleidenschaft ziehen?

Die Antworten auf diese Fragen kennen wir nicht – zum Teil deshalb, weil die Folgen davon abhängen, was die Politik unternimmt. Die richtigen Reaktionen werden dafür sorgen, dass die Weltwirtschaft sich ab Ende 2009 erholen kann. Schlechte politische Entscheidungen andererseits werden eine Erholung bestenfalls verzögern und schlimmstenfalls irreparable Schäden anrichten. Hier ist eine Liste von Dingen, die es zu beachten gilt.

Wird die Reaktion der USA „kühn“ genug ausfallen? Barack Obama hat versprochen, dass sie das wird und dabei Franklin D. Roosevelts berühmte, auf dem Höhepunkt der Großen Depression 1932 geäußerte Forderung nach „kühnen, dauerhaften Experimenten“ zumindest teilweise anklingen lassen. Obama steht ein Team erstklassiger Ökonomen zur Seite, was gewährleistet, dass er nichts Törichtes tun wird. Doch Amerikas Lage ist derart ungewöhnlich, dass er Berater brauchen wird, die bereit sind, neue, unerprobte Ideen auszuprobieren – mit anderen Worten, Experimente nach Art Roosevelts.

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