大胆实验的时代

坎布里奇——世界经济带着比近代记忆中任何时候更多的不确定性(和焦虑)步入了2009。尽管金融危机似乎在美国和欧洲受到了遏制,但其所带来的全面影响还需要过一段时间才会变得清晰。发达国家陷入了自大萧条以后最糟糕的低迷时期。但这次经济衰退究竟有多深多长,又会在多大程度上影响新兴和发展中经济体?

我们不知道上述问题的答案,部分原因是危机的后果取决于决策者的应对措施。恰当的对策能确保世界经济到2009年下半年开始复苏。另一方面,糟糕的政策抉择最好的结果是延缓经济恢复,而最坏的结果是带来无法弥补的损害后果。我们需要警惕以下几个问题。

美国的对策是否足够“大胆”? 巴拉克·奥巴马承诺这没有问题,奥巴马的对策至少部分仿效了1932年大萧条顶峰时期富兰克林·D·罗斯福“不断大胆实验”的著名呼吁。奥巴马身边聚集了一流的经济学家团队,这样可以确保他不做任何傻事。但美国的情况如此特殊,以致于他需要愿意尝试从未测试过的全新理念的人做他的顾问——换句话讲,必须勇于进行罗斯福式的尝试。

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