Příběh o dvou měnových oblastech

PALO ALTO – Spojené státy a Evropa jsou dvě obří oblasti volného obchodu, obě sice zámožné, leč sužované vážnými krátkodobými problémy a nesmírnými dlouhodobými výzvami. Jde taktéž o dvě oblasti jednotné měny: dolaru a pro většinu Evropy eura. Výzvy, jimž obě čelí, jsou kolosální.

Pouze evropský měnový svaz však stojí před nejistotou ohledně své budoucnosti; Amerika na existenční krizi své měny nenaráží. Podobnosti a odlišnosti mezi těmito dvěma ekonomickými mocnostmi, zejména ve vztahu k vnitřní mobilitě pracovních sil, produktivitě a fiskálním politikám, naznačují, proč tomu tak je – a nabízejí vodítka k hledání odpovědi na otázku, zda eurozóna dokáže přestát krizi na své periferii a vyvinout se ve stabilní oblast jednotné měny.

Schopnost přesunu pracovních sil z chudších do bohatších oblastí funguje jako tlumič nárazů diferenčních těžkostí hospodářství. Dalším přirozeným tlumičem je devalvace měny, která v nejhůře postižené oblasti zvyšuje konkurenční schopnost. K té při společné měně docházet nemůže, a nejsou-li dostatečně mobilní pracovní síly, aby přispěly ke zmírnění regionálních kontrakcí příjmů a nezaměstnanosti, ekonomická korekce je dvakrát tak těžká.

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