Historia de dos economías americanas

NUEVA YORK – Aunque los Estados Unidos anunciaron recientemente un crecimiento del 3,5 por ciento del PIB en el tercer trimestre, con lo que daban a entender que la recesión más severa desde la Gran Depresión ya había pasado, la economía americana es mucho más débil, en realidad, de lo que indican los datos oficiales, porque los cálculos oficiales del PIB pueden exagerar en gran medida el crecimiento de la economía, en vista de que no reflejan el dato de que la impresión sobre la marcha de los negocios entre las pequeñas empresas está por los suelos y su producción sigue experimentando una acusada reducción. El crecimiento del PIB en el tercer trimestre, corregido adecuadamente en función de esos factores, puede haber sido del 2 por ciento, en lugar del 3,5 por ciento.

En realidad, se trata de una situación de los EE.UU. en la que se dan dos economías. Hay una más pequeña que se está recuperando despacio y una mayor que sigue experimentando una profunda y persistente contracción.

Veamos los siguientes datos. Si bien la tasa oficial de desempleo de los EE.UU. asciende ya al 10,2 por ciento, esa cifra da un salto hasta la enorme del 17,5 por ciento, si se incluye a los trabajadores desalentados y a los que trabajan con jornada parcial y, aunque los datos procedentes de las empresas indican que las pérdidas de puestos de trabajo en los tres últimos meses ascendieron a 600.000, las encuestas entre las familias, que incluyen a los trabajadores autónomos y a los pequeños empresarios, indican que dichas pérdidas ascendieron a más de dos millones.

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