Un conte de deux économies américaines

NEW YORK – Alors que les Etats-Unis annoncent une remontée du PIB au troisième trimestre à 3,5%, suggérant que la récession la plus sévère depuis la Grande Dépression touche à sa fin, l’économie américaine est en fait bien plus affaiblie que ne le montre ce chiffre. Mais les modes de calcul officiels du PIB pourraient bien surévaluer la croissance de l’économie dans la mesure où ils ne prennent pas en considération les extrêmes difficultés des petites entreprises dont les rendements sont en très nette baisse. Si l’on intègre ces facteurs, le PIB du troisième trimestre ne serait que de 2%  et non les 3,5% annoncés.

L’histoire américaine est en fait un conte de deux économies. L’une, plus modeste, se remet doucement tandis que l’autre, plus importante, reste encore durablement en profond replis.

Considérons les éléments suivants. Le taux officiel du chômage est déjà de 10,2% mais ce chiffre grimpe à 17,5% si l’on inclus les travailleurs en âge légal de travailler mais si découragés qu’ils ne recherchent pas activement un emploi ni ceux travaillant à temps partiel. Les données fournies par les entreprises suggèrent une perte de 600,000 emplois dans les trois derniers mois mais les enquêtes, qui se sont aussi portées sur les travailleurs indépendants et les petites entreprises, indiquent que deux millions d’emplois auraient été perdus.

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