美国经济的罗生门

纽约——最新报告显示,美国第三季度GDP增长3.5%,说明自大萧条以来最严重的衰退已经结束,尽管如此,美国经济实际上比数据所显示的情况差得多。官方的统计数字很可能高估了经济增长水平,因为该统计忽略了一些重要事实,即小企业的经营情绪(business sentiment)极其低落,它们的产出仍在急剧下滑。如果根据这些因素加以修正,第三季度GDP增长本应只有2%,而不是3.5%。

说真的,美国经济说起来是一个经济,其实是两个经济。其中一个比较小的经济是在慢慢复苏,而另一个较大的经济则仍在低谷中徘徊。

举两个例子就明白了。美国的官方失业率为10.2%,已经够高了;但若把就业意愿丧失者(discouraged workers)和非全日制雇工也计算在内,该数字将跃升至17.5%,可以说高得吓人。来自企业方面的调查数据显示,近三个月流失的工作岗位约有60万个;而来自家庭方面——其中包括自由职业者和小企业主——的调查结果则表明,工作岗位流失的数量超过200万。

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