Kommt die nachhaltige Erholung des Immobilienmarkts?

NEW HAVEN – Die Volatilität auf dem Immobilienmarkt ist seit langem bekannt, aber bis heute war sie noch nie gleichzeitig an so vielen Orten auf der Welt so offensichtlich. Das Jahr 2009 könnte sogar einen Meilenstein in Richtung einer neuen Ära der Volatilität markieren.

Seit dem Jahr 2000 bekommen wir die dramatischsten Beweise für eine Spekulationsblase auf den Märkten für selbst genutztes Wohneigentum vor Augen geführt. Nach 2000 explodierten die Eigenheimpreise in Nordamerika, Europa, Asien und an vielen isolierten Orten der Welt. Den Höhepunkt erreichten die Märkte im Jahr 2007, aber mit Beginn der weltweiten Finanzkrise kam es an vielen Orten zu einem drastischen Einbruch. Überraschenderweise erholten sich die Preise 2009 in manchen Regionen. Die Geschichte scheint kein Ende zu nehmen.

In den Vereinigten Staaten erfuhr der S&P/Case-Shiller 10-Immobilienpreisindex die stärksten Richtungsänderungen seit dieser Index 1987 ins Leben gerufen wurde. So stieg er zwischen April und August 2009 um 5 Prozent (15 Prozent auf das Jahr gerechnet), nachdem er in den vier Monaten von Dezember 2008 bis März 2009 um 7 Prozent gefallen war (21 Prozent auf Jahresbasis). Zu einem Anstieg der Immobilienpreise kam es in jüngster Zeit in Australien, Großbritannien, Hongkong, Korea, Singapur und Schweden. Und auch anderswo blickt man optimistisch in die Zukunft.

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