Una estrategia de supervivencia para la zona del euro

NUEVA YORK – Después de las crisis griega e irlandesa y la propagación del contagio financiero a Portugal, España y posiblemente Italia incluso, la zona del euro está inmersa ahora en una crisis grave. Hay tres posibles situaciones hipotéticas: “un arreglárselas mal que bien” mediante el actual planteamiento de “prestar y rezar”; “una desintegración”, con reestructuraciones de la deuda desordenadas y posible salida de los miembros más débiles; y “una mayor integración”,  que entrañaría alguna forma de unión fiscal.

La hipótesis de arreglárselas mal que bien –con financiación facilitada a los Estados miembros con dificultades (condicionada al ajuste fiscal y las reformas estructurales), con la esperanza de que carezcan de liquidez, pero no de solvencia–es un desequilibrio inestable. De hecho, podría conducir a la situación hipotética de la desintegración desordenada, si no se aplican pronto las reformas institucionales y otras políticas encaminadas a una integración más estrecha y el restablecimiento del crecimiento en la periferia de la zona del euro.

La crisis comenzó con demasiada deuda privada y demasiado apalancamiento, que pasó a ser deuda y déficits públicos cuando la crisis y la recesión desencadenaron el deterioro fiscal y se socializó la mayoría de las pérdidas privadas mediante rescates de los sistemas financieros. Después, el Fondo Monetario Internacional y la Unión Europea rescataron a Estados con dificultades y que ya habían perdido el acceso a los mercados: Grecia e Irlanda.

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