欧元区求生指南

纽约——继希腊、爱尔兰分别爆发危机之后,财政瘟疫传染到了葡萄牙、西班牙甚至意大利,欧元区已陷入严重危机之中。前景有三种可能:一是“蒙混过关”(继续现在的“贷款加祈祷”);二是“分崩离析”(债务重组陷入无序状态,某些脆弱的成员国退出货币联盟);三是“加强一体化”(预示着某种形式的财政联盟)。

蒙混过关——向困境中的成员国提供融资,附带财政调整和结构改革等条件,寄希望于它们仅仅是周转困难而非无力偿债——只是一种不稳定非均衡状态。说真的,如果体制改革和其他政策不能加强一体化程度,并很快恢复欧元区边缘国家的经济增长势头,这种非均衡状态就会转变为无序的分崩离析。

危机的起因是私人部门过度负债和过高杠杆率,随着危机和衰退削弱财政状况,随着大部分私人亏损经由金融体系脱身计划而被摊派给全社会,私人债务危机演变为公共债务和公共赤字危机。再后来,若干受到重创的政府(希腊和爱尔兰)丧失了市场融资能力,从国际货币基金(IMF)和欧盟得到救助。

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