Les Keynésiens perdus d’Europe

CAMBRIDGE – Il n'existe pas de remède keynésien magique aux malheurs de la zone euro. Pour autant, l'argument actuel qui explique de manière spectaculairement confuse que trop d'austérité tue l'Europe n'est pas surprenant. Les commentateurs sont envahis par la politique, qui s’en prend à n'importe quelle cible disponible, tandis que les masses « anti-austérité » semblent croire qu'il existe des solutions conjoncturelles simples à des problèmes structurels difficiles.

Les difficultés de la zone euro, comme je l’explique depuis longtemps, découlent de l'intégration financière et monétaire européenne qui a largement dépassé la réelle union politique, fiscale et bancaire. Ceci n'est pas un problème avec lequel Keynes était familier, et encore moins auquel il cherchait à apporter un réponse.

Avant toute autre chose, n’importe quelle stratégie réaliste pour faire face à la crise la zone euro doit impliquer des réductions (effacements) massives de la dette des pays périphériques. La dette massive des banques et gouvernements de ces pays – la distinction entre les deux secteurs est devenue floue partout en Europe – rend utopique d’espérer une croissance rapide et soutenue.

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