亚洲的民主安全四边形

东京——2007年夏,身为日本首相在印度议会中央大厅讲话时,我谈到了“两大洋的交汇”。该词来源于1655年莫卧儿王朝王子达拉·西阔著作的书名,当时在场的议员用掌声和跺脚表达了对我演讲的支持。这一幕过去5年后,我更加坚信我所说的绝对是真理。

太平洋及印度洋的和平、稳定和航行自由具有密不可分的关系。影响其中之一的局势演变与另一地区的联系从未像今天这样紧密。日本作为亚洲航海历史最悠久的民主国家之一,理应在保护两地区共同利益方面发挥更重要的作用。

但是南中国海似乎注定会逐步成为“北京的内湖”,分析人士认为南海之于中国可以和鄂霍次克海之于苏俄的作用相比:这片海域足以供解放军海军建立具备发射核弹头导弹能力的核动力攻击潜艇基地。不久,解放军海军的新建航母将随处可见——用以恐吓中国的邻国可谓绰绰有余。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/K10mUQ0/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now