A Escolha da Alemanha

FRANKFURT – A crise do euro já transformou a União Europeia, de uma associação voluntária de estados iguais para uma relação entre credores e devedores da qual não há uma saída fácil. Os credores arriscam perder somas avultadas caso um estado membro saia da união monetária, mas ao mesmo tempo os devedores estão sujeitos a políticas que aprofundam a sua depressão, agravam o fardo da sua dívida e perpetuam a sua posição de subordinação. Como resultado, a crise ameaça agora destruir a própria UE. Isso resultaria numa tragédia de proporções históricas, que apenas a liderança Alemã poderá evitar.

As causas da crise não podem ser devidamente compreendidas sem reconhecermos a falha fatal do euro: ao criar um banco central independente, os países membros endividaram-se numa moeda que não controlam. Em primeiro lugar, tanto as autoridades como os participantes no mercado trataram todas as obrigações soberanas como se não tivessem risco, criando um incentivo perverso para os bancos adquirirem grandes quantidades de obrigações dos países mais desfavorecidos. Quando a crise Grega fez assomar o espectro do incumprimento, os mercados financeiros reagiram vingativamente, relegando todos os membros da zona euro demasiado endividados para um estatuto comparável ao de países do Terceiro Mundo sobreexpostos numa moeda estrangeira. Consequentemente, os países membros grandemente endividados foram tratados como sendo os únicos responsáveis pelos seus problemas, e o defeito estrutural do euro ficou por corrigir.

Uma vez que isto esteja entendido, a solução sugere-se quase automaticamente. Pode ser resumida numa só palavra: Eurobonds.

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