Une stratégie de survie saoudienne

Les bombardements qui ont ébranlé Riyad ont-ils enfin sorti la famille royale al-Saud de sa suffisance ? Cette interruption insolente lancée contre l'indolence de leurs majestés par leurs sujets ont engendré rage et fureur et un autre sentiment : la peur. Bien entendu, des sonneries d'alarme avaient déjà retenti en Arabie Saoudite, mais la famille régnante campait sur ses positions, le démenti et la répression constituant les artifices politiques dans lesquels excellent les al-Saud. Si le régime doit se forger une stratégie de survie, il doit dès maintenant réexaminer ses fondations.

Comme famille régnante, les al-Saud sont extrêmement nombreux, avec quelques 22 000 membres. Mais une lignée aussi vaste n'a pas empêché son vieillissement. En effet, les hommes qui luttent actuellement pour maintenir l'union sont le roi infirme Fahd (84 ans), son demi-frère le prince héritier Abdullah (79 ans) et ses frères, le ministre de la Défense Sultan (78 ans) et le ministre de l'Intérieur Naif (75 ans).

Les hommes âgés trouvent évidement difficile de s'adapter à l'effondrement des suppositions qui ont gouverné leur vie entière. Il est possible que l'illusion perdue la plus bouleversante soit le fait que les bombardements se soient déroulés au coeur de la propriété familiale des al-Saud dans la région de Najdi, ce qui indique que l'ennemi réside plus près du trône qu'ils ne le soupçonnaient. Cette reconnaissance se révèle tout particulièrement troublante car les al-Saud se sont aliénés chaque groupe, à l'exception du leur. S'il leur est désormais impossible de faire confiance à certains Najdiens, vers quels alliés les al-Saud pourront-ils se tourner ?

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