Ein russischer Frühling?

PARIS: Russland ist nicht Ägypten. Moskau steht nicht unmittelbar vor einer Revolution so wie Kairo vor nicht einmal einem Jahr. Und die Machthaber in Russland haben Aktiva, die dem Regime des damaligen ägyptischen Präsidenten Hosni Mubarak fehlten.

Als Energie-Supermacht kann Russland sein Staatssäckel öffnen, um die Demütigung, die es seinen Bürgern durch Fälschung der jüngsten Parlamentswahlen des Landes zugefügt hat, zumindest teilweise zu lindern. Und: Nicht alle Russen sind auf die Straße gegangen. Hüten wir uns vor dem „Zoomeffekt“, der viele Menschen glauben ließ, die jungen Demonstranten auf dem Tahrir-Platz wären repräsentativ für die ägyptische Gesellschaft. Sie waren es nicht. Das ländliche Ägypten ist – wie das ländliche Russland – viel konservativer als die jungen Eliten, die mit ihren Protesten und ihrer begeisternden Annahme der modernen sozialen Medien die Vorstellungskraft der Welt beflügelten.

Zudem war Mubarak alt und krank und hatte das Vertrauen seines Volkes verloren. Wladimir Putin dagegen verströmt Energie und Vitalität und flößt möglicherweise weiten Teilen der russischen Gesellschaft, deren Hauptanliegen der Ruhm ihres Landes und nicht die Zufriedenheit seiner Bürger ist, noch immer Vertrauen ein.

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